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Showing 110 forecasts
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TSMC guided to a 65%–67% gross margin range. Its October earnings will show which side of 66% the business landed on.
The next US consumer-price release will show whether annual inflation has moved above August's 3.4% reading.
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108 open forecasts
The new San Clemente blaze forced evacuations and grew to an official 570-acre estimate. The next week will show whether crews hold the line or the fire quadruples.
Nine senators have asked the Defense Inspector General to investigate reported Starlink and Starshield disruptions in Ukraine. A public probe would make accountability visible; the allegations themselves remain unproven.
Brazil has just reported its lowest Amazon deforestation rate since records began. Can that extraordinary gain survive another year, or will clearing surge back by more than half?
Europe's leaders want stronger maritime protection while ships face danger near Hormuz. Its ASPIDES mission now monitors the strait; escorting merchant vessels there would require a distinct political step.
A sweeping new US order writes large Russia penalties into law and waives their application in the same breath. Ukraine's allies are furious. The test is whether the administration reverses any part of that waiver before December.
NOAA's October outlook places the October–December Pacific anomaly near levels associated with the strongest El Niño events. The observed index, not the forecast chart, will decide this call.
Gasoline pushed September consumer inflation to 3.7%, while producer prices recorded their largest monthly jump since 2022. November's CPI release will show whether households face a new four-percent line.
After four people were killed at Silver Rail Elementary, Oregon's governor promised time for questions. A formal outside review would turn grief into a public examination of prevention and response.
Fresh projectile reports are turning the world's most consequential oil passage into a repeated hazard. A two-week count will show whether this is a burst of violence or a sustained campaign.
Russia's strikes are driving Ukraine toward another winter power test. European leaders are meeting on the grid's urgent needs; the question is whether words become a fresh, priced commitment this month.
Brussels could move from debate to a formal crisis assignment.
War, shipping and drought could turn a grain-price rise into a full market shock.
Suspected sabotage and interference could move from warnings to a collective investigation.
Another supply scare could put joint buying back at the centre of EU policy.
Energy pressure could push consumer inflation into a new four-percent zone.
A jump from September’s 4.2% would signal a material labour-market break.
The Sudan hunger map may gain another area formally classified at its worst level.
The warning about an $8.3 million funding gap could become a direct water crisis.
One more threshold could show that hunger is outpacing relief.
The first imported Kenyan case could either end as an isolated tragedy or begin a new chain.
The war’s hunger emergency could extend to another formally declared famine zone.
The outbreak could breach another border despite regional tracing.
Could one of the largest Ebola outbreaks be stopped within nine months?
The assault on power infrastructure could force countrywide emergency limits before winter is fully underway.
Washington’s own oil outlook could be forced into a sharp upward revision.
A new disruption could push daily oil prices beyond September’s $131 peak.
A single sustained shutdown would put winter electricity resilience to a hard test.
A further provincial jump would show how hard the outbreak is to contain.
The cross-border route through Uganda is a real test of regional containment.
The next cross-border incident could trigger the alliance’s formal consultation clause.
Another 22 verified attacks would deepen the collapse of medical protection.
Food trade shocks could push the benchmark sharply above September’s 136.
A confirmed case in the capital would mark a dangerous geographic leap.
The next oil-price shock would move the monthly average above September’s already elevated level.
The island’s food emergency could cross a four-million line.
The death toll may cross another devastating threshold before the year ends.
Commercial shipping could become a renewed front line of the war.
One grid failure could again push Europe’s largest nuclear plant onto emergency supplies.
Floods could turn an already huge hunger forecast into an even larger one.
War and strained water systems could push the annual cholera tally far higher.
A broken embankment could send floodwater into one of South Sudan’s largest displacement sites.
The Paris temperature line could be crossed for a full calendar year in the ERA5 estimate.
The island faces an El Niño-season cyclone gamble even as the basin-wide signal is mixed.
A dry southern Africa season could become a national food and water emergency.
A late-season US landfall remains a small but consequential possibility.
November could keep the hurricane season alive after its usual peak.
The late Atlantic season still has room for a violent storm despite a quiet 15 October snapshot.
A storm outside the formal season would puncture the idea that the calendar shuts down risk.
A year of ocean heat and a powerful El Niño could break the global temperature record.
A record-warm ocean might push another monthly global temperature record over the line.
The feared El Niño flood season could move from warning to emergency status.
El Niño rain could force a countrywide emergency response.
The fast-growing outbreak is close to a grim five-figure threshold.
London has promised faster air defence and discussed long-range missiles with Zelenskyy. The next test is whether talks become a named new weapons package before winter deepens.
Russia's attacks on Ukrainian power plants have put a proposed energy ceasefire on the brink. Zelenskyy says refinery strikes will resume if Moscow does not stop.
Europe's leaders are meeting over an energy shock. The explosive question is whether their response will revive a price cap, rather than stop at a call for temporary relief.
The chipmaker has just reported a $46.72 billion quarter and guided to $52.3–54.3 billion for the next one. The AI boom now has a hard revenue test.
The two governments have approved lists of goods for possible tariff relief. The decisive move is a legal US rate cut, not another diplomatic announcement.
The 24 October EU–Gulf Cooperation Council meeting has been postponed without a replacement date. A strategic partnership now faces a public calendar test.
NASA has scheduled two spacewalks to finish the station's power upgrade. The final array is due in November, with more electricity for research and eventual deorbit operations.
The luxury group's largest division contracted in the third quarter as demand in China slowed. A fourth-quarter rebound is possible but far from assured.
After another merchant vessel was struck near its coast, Sofia is seeking allied help. A formal treaty consultation remains a separate, unannounced step.
Kyiv says it is ready to stop attacks on energy sites if Moscow does the same. The two governments have not published matching terms for a new pause.
Kyiv says it is willing to halt strikes on Russian energy infrastructure if Moscow reciprocates. A US announcement has not yet become matching public commitments by the two governments.
Saudi aviation authorities reported a second attack on King Khalid International Airport and continued safety assessments. The question is when ordinary international departures can restart.
A revised negotiating box is on the October summit agenda. A political agreement this year would leave 2027 to enact the nearly €2 trillion long-term budget, but the 27 governments still face competing spending and revenue demands.
The magnitude 7.7 shock has already been followed by many smaller tremors; the chance of a substantially stronger aftershock remains open.
The storm's landfall, flooding and outages could prompt federal assistance beyond the initial emergency response.
The fund's October outlook will test whether energy and debt risks have altered its July forecast of 3.4% growth next year.
The deadly attack on Riyadh's airport and an expanding offensive have deepened the war, but the pressure to halt cross-border attacks could still produce a pause.
A scheduled EU milestone will put AI-generated-content transparency obligations in focus for providers whose systems are already on the market.
The UN climate summit is scheduled to run from 9 to 20 November. The call turns that calendar milestone into a checkable event.
The ECB raised rates in September as inflation pressures increased, but has kept its options open for the meetings ahead.
The September flash estimate accelerated to 3.8%, with energy prices rising sharply. The next release will show whether that pressure carries into October.
A second increase would put the Fed's target range above 4%. The September minutes say most participants saw another rise as likely, while stressing that decisions remain data-dependent.
The EU has directed profits from frozen reserves to Ukraine. Transferring ownership of the underlying assets would cross a different legal and political threshold.
Repeated airspace violations have prompted stronger allied air defences. A shootdown of a piloted aircraft would mark a serious escalation.
Taiwan has reported interference with commercial ships. A physical boarding of an international cargo vessel would be a sharper form of pressure.
This is a forecast of a possible future event. Taiwan's official updates describe military activity and exercises, not an attack on its main island.
Regeneron's pozelimab and cemdisiran programme has a late-stage comparison with eculizumab due to read out.
Biogen's litifilimab has produced positive results in one cutaneous-lupus study; a second pivotal study remains a key test.
Merck and Moderna's experimental individualized cancer vaccine has met key Phase 3 melanoma endpoints.
Lilly says it plans to seek US approval for retatrutide in early 2027 after a series of positive Phase 3 results.
Pfizer's combination is under priority review for a broader, earlier-stage metastatic prostate cancer group.
Regeneron's cemdisiran has a priority-review decision target in November after a positive late-stage trial.
Novo Nordisk has filed its once-weekly cagrilintide and semaglutide combination in the US, with a decision expected in the fourth quarter.
OpenAI has submitted a confidential draft S-1 but says it has not chosen a listing timetable. A public filing would reveal the proposed offering.
Anthropic disclosed a confidential IPO filing in June. The next step is a public prospectus and an actual first trading day.
Several commercial lunar delivery missions remain on NASA's schedule. This forecast concerns launch, not a successful landing.
The IEA sees the two sources near parity. This call concerns the full 2026 calendar year, with measurement expected in a later IEA review.
After Bonn talks left the programme's future unresolved, climate negotiators face a decision at COP31.
The voluntary code already has broad support. Another wave of deployers would push its Section 2 signatory list past 250.
Negotiations have begun after Parliament authorised its position. Full adoption would move the digital euro from proposal to law.
The Commission began enforcing general-purpose AI rules in August. A formal fine would mark the first major penalty under that power.
Microsoft Cloud revenue stood at $59.3 billion in the previous quarter. The company's October earnings report will decide the next milestone.
A single very large operating-company debut would turn a strong IPO year into a landmark listing year.
The benchmark faces a round-number year-end test as markets weigh earnings, rates, and growth.
Nvidia's latest quarter delivered $96.2 billion of revenue, and its next-quarter guidance points beyond the $100 billion mark.
The election commission has scheduled a November vote and opened nominations, but access and security remain major tests.
The election commission lists a 22 December polling date. The vote would be a landmark for a country facing security and funding constraints.
After a 21st package in July, another formal round of Russia sanctions could be agreed before year-end.
A nationwide agreement would mark a major change in a war still being fought across multiple fronts, according to the UN.
Israel's election is scheduled for 27 October, with official results due in early November. The forecast concerns the largest list, not the next governing coalition.
The committee has been formed, but a UN report says it had not yet entered Gaza. The call concerns actual administration on the ground.
After renewed confrontation, a fresh reciprocal ceasefire would require public agreement from both governments.
The November midterms will decide a closely divided chamber. This call waits for the membership of the new Congress, rather than election-night projections.
Brazil's second-round vote follows a narrow first-round lead for Bolsonaro over Lula. The official tally will settle the call.
A nationwide halt to ground fighting and long-range strikes would be the largest diplomatic break in the war. The UN reported intensified attacks in October.
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