Forecasts and probabilities
Each percentage is a dated editorial estimate of a precisely defined event by a stated deadline. The article should explain its reference point, factors for and against, and uncertainty. An editorial judgment range is not a statistical confidence interval; a precise-looking point estimate is kept for scoring, not as a claim of statistical calibration. The pilot estimates have not established a calibrated track record. A 20% forecast still describes an outcome judged unlikely.
The article, probability and decision rule at first publication are preserved. New information may be added in a dated update with a revised editorial probability. The site shows the current estimate, the initial estimate and the direction of change. Revised estimates do not replace the original in the archive or the original estimate used for scoring.
Reader polls
Article polls ask visitors to choose the scenario they consider most likely. Readers must sign in with a Crystal Ball News account and may cast one ballot per article. Results and the most selected scenario appear only after a ballot is recorded. Vote shares describe the choices of participating readers; they are not representative samples, calibrated probabilities or replacements for the published editorial forecast.
Ballots are stored with a site-specific account identifier, story identifier, selected option and time. No email address is stored with a ballot. Account limits and submission checks reduce automated voting, but no public poll can guarantee that every ballot comes from a distinct human.
What is known and what is hypothetical
Article background describes information available at publication and attributes significant claims to linked sources. The forecast, its rationale and countercase are separate from those known facts. Some headlines concern war, markets, health or public policy; inclusion does not mean the event is imminent or endorsed.
Taiwan aftermath scenarios are conditional. Their percentages describe the chance of an outcome only if the defined triggering strike occurs. The scenarios are void if that trigger never occurs by its deadline. They are not reports of an attack.
Sources, images and corrections
External links identify the records used when a forecast was prepared. Linked pages may change after publication, and an official statement can be incomplete or disputed. A source link documents a claim; it does not make the forecast certain.
Illustrations are concept artwork. They do not depict the forecast event. If a factual or resolution error is identified, a correction should be made in a dated update while preserving the original forecast and its odds in the archive.
Use of this site
The material is for general information. It is not investment, trading, medical, legal or security advice. Decisions with financial, health or safety consequences require independent, current professional information. Crystal Ball News is an independent forecast project and is not affiliated with BBC News, Reuters or other publishers.