As of 11 October 2026, South Sudan's National Elections Commission says elections should be held on 22 December. It lists presidential and National Assembly contests among the national votes it administers and describes work on electoral capacity and civic education.
What is known.
The country has not yet held a national election since independence. This forecast requires the commission to confirm nationwide presidential and Assembly polling actually occurred by year-end, not merely that a date was set.
Why it is a possibility.
A published polling date and preparatory work give the vote a concrete route forward. Security, funding, and unfinished transition arrangements can still stop nationwide polling, which keeps the editorial probability below half.
What could prevent it.
Insecurity, limited funding, and delayed peace-agreement steps could force postponement.
How it will be assessed.
Resolves yes if South Sudan's National Elections Commission confirms that presidential and National Assembly polling took place nationwide by 31 December 2026. A date announcement or voting in only a subset of the country does not count.
Sources and primary records
Probabilities are provisional editorial estimates, not guarantees. Sources document the present evidence and resolution rule. Read the full disclaimer.