The UN climate convention has scheduled COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, for 9–20 November 2026. Its official conference page lists the related sessions and pre-session documents that delegates will use for negotiations.
What is known.
The summit has not yet taken place. The forecast concerns adoption of a formal COP or CMA decision by the scheduled closing day, as recorded by the UNFCCC, rather than simply the opening of the conference.
Why it is a possibility.
A published summit timetable and a process built around negotiated decisions make at least one formal decision by 20 November plausible. The 54% estimate is provisional and focuses on that exact date.
Climate talks can run past their announced finish or leave an item unresolved. Either would matter here even if delegates eventually reach an agreement.
What could prevent it.
Negotiations may extend beyond the scheduled close, or delegates may leave a key decision unresolved. A calendar date alone does not guarantee agreement.
How it will be assessed.
Resolves yes if an official COP31 or CMA decision is adopted on or before the scheduled closing date, 20 November 2026, according to the UNFCCC record.
Sources and primary records
Probabilities are provisional editorial estimates, not guarantees. Sources document the present evidence and resolution rule. Read the full disclaimer.