The European Central Bank raised its three policy rates by 0.25 percentage points in September, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.50%. It cited inflation pressure and projected euro-area inflation above its 2% target in 2026 and 2027.
What is known.
The ECB said future decisions would be made meeting by meeting using incoming data. It explicitly declined to commit to a particular interest-rate path.
Why it is a possibility.
A recent increase and the bank's inflation concerns make another rise plausible before the year ends. The forecast requires the deposit rate to move above 2.50%, so one additional increase would suffice.
The ECB's refusal to pre-commit matters: weaker growth or softer inflation data could keep the rate unchanged. That uncertainty keeps the estimate just below even odds.
What could prevent it.
The ECB says it is not pre-committing to a rate path and will decide meeting by meeting. A single data release could shift the balance.
How it will be assessed.
Resolves yes if the ECB announces a decision that raises the deposit facility rate above 2.50% by 31 December 2026. Use the official ECB monetary-policy decision.
Sources and primary records
Probabilities are provisional editorial estimates, not guarantees. Sources document the present evidence and resolution rule. Read the full disclaimer.