The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the all-items CPI-U rose 3.4% over the 12 months ending in August 2026. The same report said gasoline prices rose during August and contributed substantially to that month's increase.
What was known at publication.
The forecast is about the first BLS release of September's unadjusted 12-month all-items CPI-U rate. It asks whether that rate reaches at least 3.5%, just 0.1 percentage point above August's reading.
Why it is a possibility.
Because the latest reading sits so close to the threshold, a small further rise in the annual rate would produce a yes result. Recent energy pressure is one reason to allow a slight edge for that outcome.
The threshold is close enough for a small moderation to decide the other way. A monthly energy increase does not guarantee a higher 12-month headline rate, so the estimate is only narrowly above even odds.
What could prevent it.
A small moderation in prices can keep the annual rate below 3.5%.
How it will be assessed.
Resolves yes if the Bureau of Labor Statistics' first September 2026 CPI release reports an unadjusted 12-month increase in the all-items CPI-U of at least 3.5%.
Sources and primary records
Probabilities are provisional editorial estimates, not guarantees. Sources document the present evidence and resolution rule. Read the full disclaimer.
Dated updates.
The first article, forecast rule and original probability above remain unchanged. Each update records a new assessment.
Evidence review before the decision date
Originally 54% at publication
The latest published US CPI reading is 3.4% year on year for August, just below this forecast's 3.5% September threshold. The Bureau of Labor Statistics schedules the September release for 14 October. With the decisive observation still unpublished, the original editorial estimate is retained; the result must be settled from that release, not from market commentary.
How the revised probability was assessed
Reference point. The August CPI reading was 3.4% year on year, below the 3.5% threshold for September.
What raises the chance. A September reading at or above 3.5% would satisfy the forecast.
What lowers the chance. The previous month was below the threshold.
Editorial judgment. The September release is still pending, so the initial 54% estimate is retained.
Uncertainty. The decisive September observation has not yet been published.
Recorded outcome.
Occurred · verified 15 Oct 2026. The first September 2026 BLS CPI release, issued 14 October, reports an unadjusted 12-month all-items CPI-U increase of 3.7%, above the original at-least-3.5% threshold.