As of 11 October 2026, Sudan's army and the Rapid Support Forces remain at war. In an August Security Council briefing, the UN reported fighting across multiple fronts and described diplomacy with both sides.
What is known.
The forecast calls for both forces to formally endorse a nationwide ceasefire, with UN or African Union confirmation, by year-end. A local humanitarian pause would be a different and narrower event.
Why it is a possibility.
UN engagement keeps negotiations possible, including discussion of steps that could build trust. The same briefing described a zero-sum military approach by the parties, so an agreement covering the whole country within months remains a low-probability editorial call.
What could prevent it.
Fighting has intensified and the parties remain focused on military gains.
How it will be assessed.
Resolves yes if the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces both formally endorse a nationwide ceasefire by 31 December 2026, with confirmation from the UN or African Union. A local humanitarian pause does not count.
Sources and primary records
Probabilities are provisional editorial estimates, not guarantees. Sources document the present evidence and resolution rule. Read the full disclaimer.