The next oil-price shock would move the monthly average above September’s already elevated level.
What is known.
EIA said Brent averaged $114 a barrel in September after Middle East infrastructure and tanker attacks and forecast a $105 fourth-quarter average.
The question in this article is narrower than the general hazard: YES only if EIA’s first published November 2026 monthly Brent spot-price average, available by 31 December 2026, is at least US$120.00 per barrel. A single-day spike does not count. The source documents what was known at publication, not proof that the forecast has come true.
What earlier cases show.
The current reference point comes from US EIA's published record. Forecasts of disasters can fail because a risk signal is not a local outcome, and because official reporting and verification can lag real-world events.
Why it is a possibility.
EIA said Brent averaged $114 in September after attacks on Middle East oil routes.
EIA expects a lower fourth-quarter average as some supply routes recover.
How the 46% was assessed.
Reference point. The published 46% is an editorial judgment from the US EIA evidence available on 15 October 2026, not a measured frequency for this exact event.
Why it could be higher. EIA said Brent averaged $114 in September after attacks on Middle East oil routes.
Why it could be lower. EIA expects a lower fourth-quarter average as some supply routes recover.
The editorial judgment. A 46% point estimate allows the defined event a real possibility by 2026-12-31 while respecting the countercase. The probability is frozen at publication for scoring.
Limits of the estimate. Official data can be delayed or revised, and a broad regional warning does not settle a specific event. The original rule and deadline control the result; a later evidence update may change the displayed current estimate without rewriting this article.
What could prevent it.
EIA expects a lower fourth-quarter average as some supply routes recover.
How it will be assessed.
YES only if EIA’s first published November 2026 monthly Brent spot-price average, available by 31 December 2026, is at least US$120.00 per barrel. A single-day spike does not count.
Sources and primary records
Probabilities are provisional editorial estimates, not guarantees. Sources document the present evidence and resolution rule. Read the full disclaimer.