At its September meeting, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%. The move left the upper bound exactly at the threshold in this forecast; another increase would take it above 4.00%.
What is known.
Minutes of that meeting say most participants thought another increase would likely be appropriate by year-end. They also stressed that each decision would depend on incoming data and the balance of risks.
Why it is a possibility.
The committee's own minutes are the strongest reason for putting the forecast above even odds. There are scheduled meetings left in 2026, and only one further increase is needed for a yes outcome.
The minutes describe an inclination, not a commitment. Inflation or employment data could change the committee's view, so the estimate remains well below certainty.
What could prevent it.
The committee said the path depends on incoming data. A weaker inflation or labour outlook could keep the range unchanged.
How it will be assessed.
Resolves yes if an FOMC decision raises the upper bound of the federal-funds target range above 4.00% by 31 December 2026. The Federal Reserve's decision statement is authoritative.
Sources and primary records
Probabilities are provisional editorial estimates, not guarantees. Sources document the present evidence and resolution rule. Read the full disclaimer.