OpenAI announced in June 2026 that it had confidentially submitted a draft Form S-1. It said it had not chosen a listing timetable and that the process might take a while.
What is known.
This forecast stops at a public Form S-1 for OpenAI's own common-stock IPO in SEC EDGAR by year-end. A confidential draft does not count, and the forecast does not require shares to begin trading.
Why it is a possibility.
The draft filing makes a public registration possible within the window, but it only opens that option. OpenAI's own statement about the unsettled timetable is the main reason the estimate remains low.
The company also said some plans may be easier to pursue while private. It could therefore keep the registration confidential or postpone the process beyond 2026.
What could prevent it.
OpenAI says the process may take a while and some plans are easier to pursue as a private company.
How it will be assessed.
Resolves yes if OpenAI Group PBC publicly files an initial registration statement on Form S-1 for its own common-stock IPO in SEC EDGAR by 31 December 2026. Its already announced confidential draft does not count, and a listing is not required.
Sources and primary records
Probabilities are provisional editorial estimates, not guarantees. Sources document the present evidence and resolution rule. Read the full disclaimer.