As of 11 October 2026, the Council of the EU records adoption of its 21st Russia sanctions package on 23 July. That package added measures concerning people and entities, shipping, finance, and exports.
What is known.
The forecast requires the Council to adopt another set of measures and explicitly identify it as the 22nd package by 31 December. A proposal, or measures under a different sanctions regime, would not meet that rule.
Why it is a possibility.
The Council has repeatedly used numbered packages in response to Russia's war in Ukraine, establishing a precedent for another round. Negotiating a package among member states can take time and may narrow its scope, so adoption before year-end is plausible but uncertain.
What could prevent it.
EU unanimity requirements can delay or narrow a new package.
How it will be assessed.
Resolves yes if the Council of the EU adopts new measures by 31 December 2026 and explicitly names them its 22nd package of Russia sanctions in a press release or legal act.
Sources and primary records
Probabilities are provisional editorial estimates, not guarantees. Sources document the present evidence and resolution rule. Read the full disclaimer.
Dated updates.
The first article, forecast rule and original probability above remain unchanged. Each update records a new assessment.
EU names a 22nd Russia sanctions package as work ahead
Originally 61% at publication
The Council of the EU says its foreign ministers discussed Russia on 12 October and that the High Representative explicitly identified a 22nd sanctions package among the measures ahead. At the same meeting, the Council adopted extensive new individual listings against Russian military-industry actors.
Those listings are separate from the event in the original forecast: an adopted set of new measures explicitly named the 22nd package. No such adoption is recorded in the Council account. The stated plan raises the outlook, while agreement among member states and a formal adoption remain necessary by 31 December.
How the revised probability was assessed
Reference point. The 21st Russia sanctions package was adopted in July; the original call requires formal Council adoption of measures explicitly called the 22nd package by year-end.
What raises the chance. The High Representative has now specifically named a 22nd package as a forthcoming way to maintain pressure on Russia.
What lowers the chance. A statement of intent is not adoption. Member-state agreement and the Council's formal act still have to follow.
Editorial judgment. The explicit official reference raises the estimate from 61% to 72%, while preserving substantial uncertainty about timing and agreement.
Uncertainty. The 12 October individual listings are not themselves identified by the Council as the 22nd package and do not satisfy the original rule.