Food trade shocks could push the benchmark sharply above September’s 136.
What is known.
FAO said its Food Price Index averaged 136.0 in September 2026, up 1.5% month on month amid transport and weather pressures.
The question in this article is narrower than the general hazard: YES only if an FAO Food Price Index monthly release published by 15 February 2027 reports a value of at least 145.0 for October, November or December 2026. Later revisions do not change the first published resolution. The source documents what was known at publication, not proof that the forecast has come true.
What earlier cases show.
The current reference point comes from FAO's published record. Forecasts of disasters can fail because a risk signal is not a local outcome, and because official reporting and verification can lag real-world events.
Why it is a possibility.
FAO reported weather and transport pressures on September prices, with the index rising 1.5% in a month.
Improving shipping or harvests may reverse the rise before it reaches 145.
How the 43% was assessed.
Reference point. The published 43% is an editorial judgment from the FAO evidence available on 15 October 2026, not a measured frequency for this exact event.
Why it could be higher. FAO reported weather and transport pressures on September prices, with the index rising 1.5% in a month.
Why it could be lower. Improving shipping or harvests may reverse the rise before it reaches 145.
The editorial judgment. A 43% point estimate allows the defined event a real possibility by 2027-02-15 while respecting the countercase. The probability is frozen at publication for scoring.
Limits of the estimate. Official data can be delayed or revised, and a broad regional warning does not settle a specific event. The original rule and deadline control the result; a later evidence update may change the displayed current estimate without rewriting this article.
What could prevent it.
Improving shipping or harvests may reverse the rise before it reaches 145.
How it will be assessed.
YES only if an FAO Food Price Index monthly release published by 15 February 2027 reports a value of at least 145.0 for October, November or December 2026. Later revisions do not change the first published resolution.
Sources and primary records
Probabilities are provisional editorial estimates, not guarantees. Sources document the present evidence and resolution rule. Read the full disclaimer.