The International Energy Agency says global renewable electricity generation virtually matched coal-fired generation in 2025. Coal still held a narrow lead in its annual accounting.
What is known.
In its July 2026 electricity update, the IEA forecast renewables would overtake coal in 2026 and that renewable output would grow by more than 8% this year. The full-year result has yet to be measured.
Why it is a possibility.
Starting from near parity, continued solar and other renewable growth gives a clear route to a crossover. The provisional 76% estimate is informed by the IEA outlook, not by completed 2026 data.
Weather, hydropower and wind output, electricity demand, and higher coal generation could change the annual result. This call will use the IEA's later full-year review as its measurement source.
What could prevent it.
Higher coal output or slower renewable generation can delay the global crossover.
How it will be assessed.
Resolves yes if the IEA's Global Energy Review for 2027 reports that total renewable electricity generation exceeded coal generation worldwide for calendar year 2026. The observation window ends 31 December 2026; the official measurement may be published in 2027.
Sources and primary records
Probabilities are provisional editorial estimates, not guarantees. Sources document the present evidence and resolution rule. Read the full disclaimer.