One grid failure could again push Europe’s largest nuclear plant onto emergency supplies.
What is known.
UN monitors documented at least 423 attacks on Ukrainian electricity facilities during the 2025–26 winter.
The question in this article is narrower than the general hazard: YES only if IAEA or Ukraine’s nuclear regulator publishes by 15 February 2027 that Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant lost all off-site electrical power at any point from 16 October through 31 December 2026. Loss of one line while another remains does not count. The source documents what was known at publication, not proof that the forecast has come true.
What earlier cases show.
The current reference point comes from United Nations in Ukraine's published record. Forecasts of disasters can fail because a risk signal is not a local outcome, and because official reporting and verification can lag real-world events.
Why it is a possibility.
The war has repeatedly threatened Ukrainian electricity infrastructure, and nuclear sites need stable outside power.
Redundant lines, repairs and backup arrangements can prevent a complete external loss.
How the 38% was assessed.
Reference point. The published 38% is an editorial judgment from the United Nations in Ukraine evidence available on 15 October 2026, not a measured frequency for this exact event.
Why it could be higher. The war has repeatedly threatened Ukrainian electricity infrastructure, and nuclear sites need stable outside power.
Why it could be lower. Redundant lines, repairs and backup arrangements can prevent a complete external loss.
The editorial judgment. A 38% point estimate allows the defined event a real possibility by 2027-02-15 while respecting the countercase. The probability is frozen at publication for scoring.
Limits of the estimate. Official data can be delayed or revised, and a broad regional warning does not settle a specific event. The original rule and deadline control the result; a later evidence update may change the displayed current estimate without rewriting this article.
What could prevent it.
Redundant lines, repairs and backup arrangements can prevent a complete external loss.
How it will be assessed.
YES only if IAEA or Ukraine’s nuclear regulator publishes by 15 February 2027 that Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant lost all off-site electrical power at any point from 16 October through 31 December 2026. Loss of one line while another remains does not count.
Sources and primary records
Probabilities are provisional editorial estimates, not guarantees. Sources document the present evidence and resolution rule. Read the full disclaimer.