TSMC reported a 67.7% consolidated gross margin for the second quarter of 2026. At that time it guided third-quarter gross margin to a range of 65.0%–67.0%.
What was known at publication.
The forecast asks whether the official third-quarter consolidated figure is strictly below 66.0%. TSMC's guidance spans both sides of that cutoff.
Why it is a possibility.
The midpoint of the company's guidance is exactly 66.0%, leaving the forecast close to a coin flip. A result in the lower part of the stated range would resolve yes.
A favourable product mix or high factory utilisation could keep margin at or above 66.0%. The guidance range alone does not identify which side is more likely.
What could prevent it.
A stronger product mix or utilisation rate could keep margin at or above 66%.
How it will be assessed.
Resolves yes if TSMC's official third-quarter 2026 consolidated gross margin is strictly below 66.0% in its earnings release by 15 October 2026.
Sources and primary records
Probabilities are provisional editorial estimates, not guarantees. Sources document the present evidence and resolution rule. Read the full disclaimer.
Dated updates.
The first article, forecast rule and original probability above remain unchanged. Each update records a new assessment.
TSMC reports a 66.4% third-quarter gross margin
Originally 49% at publication
On 15 October, TSMC published its third-quarter 2026 earnings release and reported a consolidated gross margin of 66.4%. That is 0.4 percentage points above this forecast's strictly-below-66.0% threshold. The original 49% estimate and the article's wording remain in place; this dated update records the deciding release.
The forecast remains open until its full 15 October deadline has passed. Its published rule calls for a NO result if no official third-quarter earnings release by that date reports a margin strictly below 66.0%.
How the revised probability was assessed
Reference point. The original rule required TSMC's official third-quarter 2026 consolidated gross margin to be strictly below 66.0% in an earnings release by 15 October.
What raises the chance. Only an official correction or another qualifying release within the deadline that reports a margin below 66.0% could satisfy the published rule.
What lowers the chance. TSMC's dated earnings release reports 66.4%, above the threshold.
Editorial judgment. The deciding release makes a qualifying outcome highly unlikely, lowering the current estimate from 49% to 1% while preserving the original probability.
Uncertainty. The original deadline has not fully elapsed, so a NO result cannot yet be recorded.
Recorded outcome.
Did not occur · verified 16 Oct 2026. TSMC reported third-quarter 2026 consolidated gross margin of 66.4% in its 15 October earnings release, above the strictly-below-66.0% threshold. The full 15 October deadline has passed.