The Council of the EU agreed its digital euro position in December 2025, and the European Parliament adopted its position in July 2026. The European Central Bank said in October that negotiations between the institutions were under way.
What is known.
The ECB describes the proposed digital euro as a public digital payment option for everyday use. It says its Governing Council would decide whether to issue one only after legislation is adopted.
Why it is a possibility.
Both lawmakers now have negotiating positions, and EU leaders have called for talks to conclude before year-end. That gives a route to adoption by 31 December, supporting the provisional 59% estimate.
Agreement in negotiations is not enough for this call: Parliament and Council must both formally adopt the regulation. Questions about design, bank safeguards and final text can slow those votes.
What could prevent it.
Disagreement over design and safeguards could push the final vote into 2027.
How it will be assessed.
Resolves yes if the digital euro regulation is formally adopted by both the European Parliament and Council of the EU by 31 December 2026. A provisional trilogue deal alone does not count.
Sources and primary records
Probabilities are provisional editorial estimates, not guarantees. Sources document the present evidence and resolution rule. Read the full disclaimer.