The Sharm el-Sheikh mitigation work programme was set to operate through the 2026 session of the Paris Agreement's governing conference. Its future beyond that mandate is a decision for the parties.
What is known.
UN Climate Change reported that delegates did not reach agreement on the programme's review at the June Bonn talks. They planned to resume negotiations at COP31 with a view to recommending a continuation decision.
Why it is a possibility.
A defined negotiation track and an expected decision at COP31 support the provisional 65% chance of an extension by 30 November. The earlier failure to agree also shows that the text is contested.
Only an adopted CMA decision continuing the programme counts. A draft, a chair's summary or more talks without adoption would fall short.
What could prevent it.
Negotiations over scope and ambition may fail or slip beyond the November session.
How it will be assessed.
Resolves yes if the CMA at COP31 formally adopts a decision continuing the UN mitigation work programme beyond its current mandate by 30 November 2026. A draft or chair's statement does not count.
Sources and primary records
Probabilities are provisional editorial estimates, not guarantees. Sources document the present evidence and resolution rule. Read the full disclaimer.