NASA's launch schedule lists three commercial lunar delivery missions for 2026: Astrobotic's Griffin-1, Intuitive Machines' IM-3 and Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost Mission 2.
What is known.
These missions are part of NASA's effort to send payloads to the Moon with commercial partners. The forecast is about at least one rocket launch before year-end, not arrival at the Moon or a successful landing.
Why it is a possibility.
Having three listed opportunities raises the chance that one mission launches, supporting the provisional 74% estimate. A single confirmed launch is enough to satisfy the call.
Each mission still faces integration, hardware and range scheduling risk. The current schedule is a target, so a move into 2027 would leave the forecast unresolved in the negative.
What could prevent it.
Launch windows can move because of hardware, integration, or range delays.
How it will be assessed.
Resolves yes if NASA confirms that at least one of Griffin-1, Intuitive Machines IM-3, or Blue Ghost Mission 2 launched before 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2026. Landing success is not required.
Sources and primary records
Probabilities are provisional editorial estimates, not guarantees. Sources document the present evidence and resolution rule. Read the full disclaimer.