As of 11 October 2026, the Palestinian Central Elections Commission has scheduled legislative polling for 28 November and has opened electoral-list nominations in both the West Bank and Gaza. It is a timetable and preparatory process, not a completed election.
What is known.
This forecast requires voting in both territories and certified results by 31 December. A vote held only in one territory, or nominations without polling, would not satisfy it.
Why it is a possibility.
The commission's simultaneous nomination process and stated polling date show real institutional preparation. Access, security, and the logistics of voting in both territories remain substantial obstacles, making completion of the full election uncertain.
What could prevent it.
Security and voting-access disputes could delay or restrict polling.
How it will be assessed.
Resolves yes if the Palestinian Central Elections Commission confirms legislative polling took place in both Gaza and the West Bank and certifies results by 31 December 2026. A vote in one territory alone does not count.
Sources and primary records
Probabilities are provisional editorial estimates, not guarantees. Sources document the present evidence and resolution rule. Read the full disclaimer.
Dated updates.
The first article, forecast rule and original probability above remain unchanged. Each update records a new assessment.
November Palestinian legislative vote cancelled; new election date set for 2027
Originally 55% at publication
The Palestinian Central Elections Commission published an 11 October presidential decree cancelling the scheduled 2026 legislative election and calling general elections for 11 September 2027. The EU Foreign Affairs Council also described the legislative election as postponed in its 12 October meeting record.
The original forecast requires the commission to confirm legislative polling in both Gaza and the West Bank and certify results by 31 December 2026. The announced 2027 timetable makes that outcome very unlikely, but this forecast remains open until its full deadline. The first article and its original 55% estimate remain visible above.
How the revised probability was assessed
Reference point. At publication, the commission had scheduled polling for 28 November 2026 and the original forecast required certified results in both territories by year-end.
What raises the chance. A further official reversal and a completed vote with certified results before 31 December would still satisfy the original rule.
What lowers the chance. The commission published a decree cancelling the 2026 date and calling elections for September 2027; the EU Council also records a postponement.
Editorial judgment. The announced schedule sharply reduces the estimated chance of polling and certified results by year-end from 55% to 4%.
Uncertainty. A new decree or other exceptional political change could alter the timetable; the forecast cannot be scored NO before the full 31 December deadline.