As of 11 October 2026, Israel's Central Elections Committee lists 27 October as election day for the 26th Knesset and 4 November as the scheduled date for publication of results. The vote has yet to take place.
What is known.
This forecast asks whether Likud wins strictly more seats than any other electoral list. It does not predict which parties later form a governing coalition or who becomes prime minister.
Why it is a possibility.
Likud enters with an established parliamentary base, supporting a path to the largest single list. Electoral alliances and rival lists can still alter the ranking, while coalition bargaining is a separate process; the editorial estimate therefore remains near an even chance.
What could prevent it.
A rival or new electoral list may win more seats, even if coalition negotiations remain separate.
How it will be assessed.
Resolves yes if the Central Elections Committee's official 26th Knesset result allocates Likud strictly more seats than any other electoral list. A tie is no.
Sources and primary records
Probabilities are provisional editorial estimates, not guarantees. Sources document the present evidence and resolution rule. Read the full disclaimer.