The European Union has used income from immobilised Russian reserves to support Ukraine, but the underlying central-bank assets remain a separate question. This forecast concerns a legal transfer of principal, not another payment from profits.
What is known.
The Council of the EU authorised the use of extraordinary revenues from immobilised Russian central-bank assets in 2024. Its rules distinguish those revenues from the underlying reserves. The Council says around €210bn in Russian central-bank assets are immobilised in the EU.
In December 2025, EU leaders backed a €90bn loan for Ukraine financed by market borrowing and supported continued technical work on a reparations loan linked to the frozen assets. The assets were to remain immobilised in the meantime.
What earlier cases show.
The 2024 windfall-profit decision shows that EU governments have already changed how income from the reserves is used. It does not establish a precedent for confiscating the reserves themselves; that distinction is central to this forecast.
Why it is a possibility.
Ukraine's financing and defence needs keep pressure on European governments to find large, durable sources of support. The Council has reserved the possibility of using immobilised assets to repay a loan, leaving a route for further legal work.
An irreversible transfer of ownership would go beyond the existing profit mechanism and would face difficult legal and political objections. The 19% estimate is a provisional editorial assessment of that higher threshold.
What could prevent it.
Sovereign-immunity concerns, litigation risk and differences among member states may prevent confiscation. EU borrowing and windfall-profit transfers already provide alternative funding routes.
How it will be assessed.
Resolves YES if, by 31 December 2027, the Council of the EU adopts a binding legal act authorising an irreversible transfer of ownership of any principal of immobilised Russian central-bank reserves or assets to Ukraine or an EU fund for Ukraine. Transfers of interest or profits, continued immobilisation, collateral pledges, and loans funded from EU borrowing do not count.
Sources and primary records
Probabilities are provisional editorial estimates, not guarantees. Sources document the present evidence and resolution rule. Read the full disclaimer.