Every article stays in the archive
Published articles keep their original text, image, sources, probability, deadline and resolution rule at the same article URL. Corrections and later evidence appear as dated additions at the bottom.
The front page
News from the future.
Every headline is a forecastPossible outcomes · source links · dated probabilities
Editor's note: These are possible future headlines. Each percentage is a provisional estimate, and the pilot issue has not yet established a calibrated track record. The original odds and deadline remain visible when a call is resolved. Read the disclaimer.
The forecast desk at a glance
Scenario watch / Taiwan Strait
If a strike comes.
One trigger forecast. Six conditional aftermath calls.
Concept illustration · hypothetical scenarioNOT A REPORT OF AN ATTACK
Chinese forces strike Taiwan's main island before 2028
This is a forecast of a possible event. The sequence below describes what may follow only if the defined strike happens.
—Chance of the qualifying strike by 31 Dec 2027
Read the trigger forecast ↗Conditional oddsEach percentage below means the chance of that outcome given a qualifying strike. If no strike occurs by the trigger deadline, these aftermath calls are void rather than scored as misses.
The health desk
Health & outbreaks.
Concept illustrationAll reporting
The forecast desk.
Important events. Clear odds. A date to check back.
All desks0 forecasts
The newest forecasts appear first in each desk. Earlier stories rotate each day; choose another sort to see a fixed order.
A permanent public record
Rules for daily updates.
New evidence adds to the record. It never erases the original call.
Show every probability change
Each dated update shows the previous and revised estimate, the movement in percentage points, the original published percentage and the evidence behind the change. The original odds remain the basis for scoring.
One morning edition
At 09:00 Europe/Helsinki each morning, the desk checks significant open calls and the day’s major developments. It seeks five new, distinct and testable forecast articles: one substantial lead and four supporting stories, each with new concept artwork. The opening look and colours change with each complete edition. Meaningful evidence about older forecasts appears as dated updates below their original articles. If fewer than five stories meet the standard, the latest complete front page stays visible and the desk reports the shortfall.
Record what happened
Outcomes follow each article’s original rule. A YES needs direct evidence; a NO waits until the full deadline has passed. Uncertain outcomes stay open with the missing evidence explained.
Editorial standards
How a forecast becomes news.
Specific enough to check. Honest enough to score.
Write a precise event
Name the entity, threshold, date, and official source that will settle the forecast.
Weigh history and evidence
Use relevant earlier cases and present signals, then explain how the evidence raises or lowers the published probability and what could make it wrong.
Freeze the probability
Each article keeps its original text, odds and publication time. New evidence appears in a dated update below the original article.
Report the result
Resolve from the stated rule, show misses alongside hits, and track Brier score and calibration.